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Asian giants will dictate future says Worldwatch
Posted on Monday, January 16, 2006 @ 21:49:29 UTC by vlad

General The dramatic rise of China and India presents one of the gravest threats—and greatest opportunities—facing the world today, says the Worldwatch Institute in its newly released State of the World 2006 report.

The choices these countries make in the next few years will lead the world either towards a future beset by growing ecological and political instability — or down a development path based on efficient technologies and better stewardship of resources.

"Rising demand for energy, food, and raw materials by 2.5 billion Chinese and Indians is already having ripple effects worldwide," says Worldwatch President Christopher Flavin. "Meanwhile, record-shattering consumption levels in the US and Europe leave little room for this projected Asian growth."

The resulting global resource squeeze is already evident in riots over rising oil prices in Indonesia, growing pressure on Brazil's forests and fisheries, and the loss of manufacturing jobs in Central America.

Ecological superpowers

The United States still consumes three times as much grain per person as China and five times as much as India, notes the report. US per-capita carbon dioxide emissions are six times the Chinese level and 20 times the Indian level. If China and India were to consume resources and produce pollution at the current US per-capita level, it would require two planet Earths just to sustain their two economies.

"We were encouraged to find that a growing number of opinion leaders in China and India now recognize that the resource-intensive model for economic growth can't work in the 21st century," Flavin said.

"Already, China's world-leading solar industry provides water heating for 35 million buildings, and India's pioneering use of rainwater harvesting brings clean water to tens of thousands of homes. China and India are positioned to leapfrog today's industrial powers and become world leaders in sustainable energy and agriculture within a decade."

In 2005, China alone used 26 per cent of the world's steel, 32 per cent of the rice, and 47 per cent of the cement. Though their per-capita resource consumption is still low, with their huge populations China and India are joining the United States and Europe as ecological superpowers whose demands on the world's ecosystems will vastly outstrip those of other countries,according to the report.

The chemical spill on the Songhua River in northern China in November 2005, which forced a four-day closure of the water system of the city of Harbin, illustrated the huge environmental challenges facing Asia today. The spill led to the resignation of China's top environmental official, Xie Zhenhua, who authored the foreword to State of the World 2006 shortly before the disaster.

Big challenges

Other challenges facing China and India include:

  • China has only 8 per cent of the world's fresh water to meet the needs of 22 per cent of the world's people. In India, urban water demand is expected to double — and industrial demand to triple — by 2025.
  • India's use of oil has doubled since 1992, while China went from near self-sufficiency in the mid-1990s to the world's second largest oil importer in 2004. Chinese and Indian oil companies are now seeking oil in countries such as Sudan and Venezuela — and both have just started to build what are slated to be two of the largest automobile industries in the world.
  • China and India have the only large coal-dominated energy systems in the world today — coal provides more than two-thirds of China's energy and half of India's. Both countries are therefore central to future efforts to slow global climate change: China is already the world's second largest emitter of climate-altering carbon dioxide, while India ranks fourth.
  • If Chinese per-capita grain consumption were to grow to roughly European levels, China alone would require the equivalent of nearly 40 per cent of today's global grain harvest. Already, China's growing imports of grain, soybeans, and wood products are placing great pressure on the biodiversity of South America and Southeast Asia.

New trajectory

Such trends have a number of influential Chinese and Indians questioning whether their countries are on the right path. Zjeng Bijian, Chair of China Economic Reform, is quoted in the book calling for "a new path of industrialisation based on technology, low consumption of resources, low environmental pollution, and the optimal allocation of human resources."

Sunita Narain of India's Centre for Science and Environment writes in the book's foreword, " South—India, China, and all their neighbours — have no choice but to reinvent the development trajectory."

The report notes that China and India are already benefiting from South-South sharing of ideas,from biofuels to bus rapid transit systems. Recent commitments by both nations to develop large wind power and solar energy industries are likely to make a host of new technologies affordable for poor countries. Their early successful efforts to employ new approaches include:

Read the whole article here: peopleandplanet.net

 
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