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    Calm down. There's no NIF fusion power "breakthrough"
    Posted on Thursday, December 15, 2022 @ 19:33:50 GMT by vlad

    Science From BigThink.com: There is no “breakthrough”: NIF fusion power still consumes 130 times more energy than it creates by Tom Hartsfield

    If you gave me $400 and I gave you $3.15, would you consider yourself wealthier? That's a financial analogy for the supposed fusion power "breakthrough."

    Key Takeaways
    • In 2021, NIF’s laser fusion energy output jumped by 2,500%, a legitimate breakthrough.
    • This year, NIF reports that it has achieved "ignition" — that is, it has achieved slightly more fusion energy output than laser energy input.
    • However, to produce commercial fusion power, NIF would need to increase the fusion output of each experiment by at least 100,000%. The technological hurdles are absolutely enormous.

    Here we go again. In 2021, the National Ignition Facility (NIF) announced a scientific breakthrough in its pursuit of fusion power technology. One year later, they’re making another announcement, heralded as “game-changing,” “transformative,” and “a moment of history.” But this is not a meaningful breakthrough for practical, commercial fusion power: NIF still drains at least 130 times more energy from the power grid than it produces.

    A legitimate breakthrough in 2021

    Last year’s big news was that NIF dramatically increased the fusion output of its experiments. At the time, I wrote about NIF and the scientific background of its accomplishment. They earned most of their hype. Here’s a quick recap:

    “[NIF] was built for two missions. Performing research in support of the Stockpile Stewardship Program is the foremost duty, but the sign over the door doesn’t say “National Stockpile Research Facility.” NIF is named after its other task: to further our quest to understand and harness energy from nuclear fusion. A recent breakthrough in this fusion mission has made headlines across the scientific community.”

    “One of two critical parts of NIF’s fusion mission is “ignition“: release of a quantity of fusion energy greater than the laser energy required to drive the implosion. After the failure of the National Ignition Campaign, many scientists believed that ignition at NIF was impossible. That goal remains just beyond our grasp, but it is now far closer than before. The bigger news is that we may have seen the first sign of the other important fusion goal: thermonuclear burn.”

    A hyped breakthrough in 2022

    In that work, NIF’s laser fusion energy output — measured in megajoules, MJ — jumped by 2,500%, a sign of a significant physics breakthrough on the crucial problem of thermonuclear burn. This week’s announcement is an increase in fusion energy output, relative to laser energy input, from 70% in 2021 to 154% in 2022. This incremental, possibly incidental, progress toward thermonuclear burn is not a breakthrough.

    The facility has, at last, achieved slightly more fusion output than laser input: ignition. On paper that is a major symbolic victory. In practice, it’s of little consequence. Here’s why.

    Full story: https://bigthink.com/the-future/fusion-power-nif-hype-lose-energy/



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    "Calm down. There's no NIF fusion power "breakthrough"" | Login/Create an Account | 2 comments | Search Discussion
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    Re: Calm down. There's no NIF fusion power "breakthrough" (Score: 1)
    by solaris on Saturday, December 17, 2022 @ 12:13:03 GMT
    (User Info | Send a Message)
    Phys.org: Commentary: Fusion skepticism follows a century of genius, fraud and hype by Stephen Mihm

    ...Few scientific endeavors have been dogged by so many dead ends and false claims. But this has blinded us to the fact that, disappointments aside, scientists have been making slow but steady progress on fusion far longer than many people realize.

    The ideas behind fusion originated with a paper delivered by British astrophysicist Arthur Eddington at a conference held in 1920. A devout Quaker and brilliant scientist, Eddington ventured an answer to an age-old question: How do stars like the sun generate energy?

    He speculated that the immense pressure inside stars fused hydrogen atoms together, creating helium. This "fusion" converted some of the original matter into raw energy. As Eddington put it: the stars' "sub-atomic energy is…freely used to maintain their great furnaces…"

    Eddington admitted to his listeners that he was more or less spitballing. But everything he said that day proved eerily accurate, including his warning that control of this latent power could be used for the benefit of the human race—"or its suicide."


    Full article: https://phys.org/news/2022-12-commentary-fusion-skepticism-century-genius.html

    Sorry This Net Energy Gain Does NOT Mean Fusion is Close (Score: 1)
    by yru4 on Tuesday, April 11, 2023 @ 11:21:50 GMT
    (User Info | Send a Message)
    From NextBigFuture.com by Brian Wang: ...This is a step in many steps to get to commercial nuclear fusion. However, commercial nuclear fusion would need the entire plant to generate many times more power than is put into it. This is on the order of 1000 times more net energy gain than was demonstrated. The number of 1000X net energy gain pellets would need to scale up to one million pellets per day. This would enable a gigawatt fusion reactor. They are not doing 10 pellets per second they are doing one pellet every few weeks or months.


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