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Fueling the Next Industrial Revolution
Posted on Monday, August 02, 2004 @ 17:54:16 UTC by vlad
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By Michael Mandel (www.BusinessWeek.com)
It's time to place the blame for high oil prices where it belongs -- on the lack of progress in energy technology
It doesn't seem fair. If we've entered into the "Information Economy," why is crude oil -- black and gooey -- still so darn important? After all, it's just another dirty industrial commodity, produced in far-off corners of the world. Even the name -- "crude" oil -- seems leftover from the age of smokestacks and dirty factories.
Nevertheless, like the dog being wagged by the tail, the enormous and technologically advanced American economy is regularly shaken up by events in the world oil market. Usually it's turmoil in the Middle East that sends prices soaring. Most recently, however, it was a tax dispute between the Russian oil giant, Yukos, and the Russian government that caused trouble. The result: The price of crude oil on the futures market jumped to more than $43 per barrel.
STUCK IN A RUT. But even as they complain about high prices for gasoline, most people don't realize the real reason why high-tech economies are still so dependent on a low-tech commodity. The fact is, while information technology has leapt ahead over the past 30 years, energy technology has stagnated. The internal-combustion engine was invented in the 1860s. Thomas Edison built his first commercial electric power station in 1882. Gas turbines were first used for electric power in the 1930s. The most recently invented energy technology in widespread use is nuclear power -- and there have no new nuclear plants ordered since 1978.
Thus, the current situation is the result of a profound technological failure. We still have no adequate substitute for oil as an energy source, especially for transportation. Even if we adopted far more stringent conservation measures, we would still be importing large quantities of oil from volatile areas such as the Middle East and Russia. There's simply no way to significantly change the energy equation without the widespread adoption of new technologies....
R&D GAP. These ramifications suggest the only way to truly escape the geopolitical and economic consequences of oil dependence is by developing new energy technologies. ...
That's where government policies -- and the current Presidential race -- come in. Despite the incredible need for new energy technologies, government spending on energy research and development has collapsed, dropping in half since 1990 (after adjusting for inflation). Moreover, the private sector hasn't filled the gap. Industry R&D spending on energy still is mostly devoted to fossil fuels, while venture-capital funding for new energy technologies remains relatively meager...
All the great industrial revolutions have included a breakthrough in energy production and distribution, from the steam engine to the internal-combustion engine to electricity. Today's information revolution needs an energy breakthrough as well.
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Read the whole article at: www.businessweek.com
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Re: Fueling the Next Industrial Revolution (Score: 1)
by ElectroDynaCat on Tuesday, August 03, 2004 @ 18:43:53 UTC
(User Info | Send a Message) | Actually, oil prices are not that high, but if we were to add the cost of all that goes into getting "cheap" oil into the purchase price, it would be expensive. Aircraft carriers and troop deployments aren't cheap. Oil companies have managed to socialize their procurement costs, while privatising their profits.
The damnable thing about oil is that it is cheap, and any proposed substitute for oil would only cause the price to go down further, and thats how the oil industry likes it. They would lower the price of their product enough to undercut the establishment of alternatives in the marketplace, unless of course they could be persuaded to invest in it themselves.
Looking at all present alternatives, and in the long run, unless there are really steep jumps in oil prices, like over $60/barrel, the economics of alternatives don't work out.
You can put solar heat in your home, but the added cost of the devices, usually about $10,000 per system don't amortize over the life of the system where it would be cheaper than natural gas or fuel oil. |
Re: Fueling the Next Industrial Revolution (Score: 1)
by kurt9 on Wednesday, August 04, 2004 @ 09:09:31 UTC
(User Info | Send a Message) http://www.metatechnica.com | Thats certainly true. In the late 90's, we were paying about $10 billion a year for middle eastern oil. At the same time, we were spending $30 billion a year on military expenses with regards in safe guarding our access to that oil. If you factor in that cost, middle eastern oil is not cheap.
Since the Saudis have been cooking the books on their oil reserves, it likely that the oil companies will begin exploration of other regions (West coast of Africa, etc.) and invest less into the Middle east. If current trends continue, we are likely to become less dependent on middle eastern oil.
Piddle-power alternatives (wind, solar, etc.) simply do not generate the gigawatts and terawatts of power needed form modern civilization. If fusion or ZPE do not work out, I think the integral fast reactor (IFR) is the way to go. |
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Re: Fueling the Next Industrial Revolution (Score: 1)
by johnboy on Wednesday, August 11, 2004 @ 21:10:32 UTC
(User Info | Send a Message) | | if funding new energy r&d projects is a problem, why not approach bill gates or/and his microsoft stockholders for venture capitol? most, if not all, of them were not expecting a huge dividend this year, so before they start dreaming of new ways to splurge, present alternative energy fuels and devices research and development projects for another, and more noble investment. most of them will see the benefit potential after scoring so large from mr. gates; give 'em a good reason to be proud, since they've already been proven to be shrewd. |
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