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Re: Hurry Up & Wait & a cautionary tale. (Score: 1)
by DoItDontJustWriteAboutIt on Wednesday, November 23, 2005 @ 07:44:05 UTC
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Your point is well taken and thought provoking.  It is an axiom of business that one keeps the next generation under wraps until either the market demands it, or the competition requires it be released.  The general idea, of course, is "If it's still profitable this way, there is no point in gearing up the factory to switch to the next thing."

This is why most innovation comes from small firms with little or no vested interests.

Twenty years ago while on holiday I met a retired optical physicist from Kodak, and we go into a lively discussion about CCD vs. film.  He made the point that Kodak had developed military films whose image quality, grain size, and sensitivity were well in excess of consumer films sold in bulk, and that "Kodak is just keeping these on the shelf and they roll out the next better one as needed to maintain their market share."  But in Kodak's case, that only bought them 20 years and they now are playing catch-up in the CCD business.  They make some of the finest CCDs around--no argument there.  But they have not believed it necessary to capture the CCD consumer camera business early, focusing mostly on professional markets first.

I close with a cautionary tale.  If Hal P and others are correct--that there is enough ZPE in a coffee cup the boil all the oceans of earth, we will have no energy crisis.  Rather, we will have a survival crisis, given the state of terrorism in the modern world.  If ZPE extraction demands only a "simple trick" of invention (whether or not it now exists and is suppressed, or might soon exist), such that any hobbyist can make such a gizmo, then I fear we shall all be invited into the hereafter by some nitwit who imagines his religion to be superior and who hears voices in his head compelling him to act.  I hope the 21st Century does not go down as the "century of the madman zealot."


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