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    Re: Re: Greenhouse theory smashed by biggest stone (Score: 1)
    by Technophile on Thursday, March 16, 2006 @ 08:21:43 UTC
    (User Info | Send a Message)
    nbcell writes: ""In any case, we are near the end of the carbon age in our energy economy, so CO2 emissions will cease to be an issue." Where is your factual data on this one?"

    Several come to mind.

    First, look at carbon intensity. Carbon usage per unit of energy and per unit of GDP is declining precipitously, and has been for a long time. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg04rpt/trends.html Part of this is due to using more carbon-efficient energy sources, and part due to using energy more efficiently. Both trends will continue.

    Beyond that, isn't this the entire thrust of this website? New energy technologies are surely coming, and those already known are becoming more efficient. All it takes is one of these to reach a cost point substantially below that of carbon based energy, and carbon based technology will go the way of the buggy whip.

    Some examples of how close we are to this point, keeping in mind that carbon-based energy at its most efficient currently costs in the range of 4 to 8 cents per kWh to produce.

    Nuclear fission: Pebble Bed Reactors, expected energy costs 2-3 cents/kWh

    Wind turbines are now in the 8 to 10 cent range, I believe, and some new designs are promising the 4 to 6 cent range.

    Sterling Solar has unsubsidized contracts for power delivery in California, which puts solar into the price range of carbon for the first time, though they don't divulge their projected numbers.

    Ocean Power Technologies estimates 3 to 4 cents per kWh for large installations of their Powerbuoys, prototypes of which are already producing power.

    I could go on and on. And those are all relatively conventional. The generation beyond that, while a bit speculative at the moment will be putting out power at less than a cent per kWh. Possible technologies include Magnetic Power Inc., Blacklight Power, Electron Power Systems (plasma tauroid based fusion), Focus fusion, broadband rectennas, etc. At least one of these will pan out. And when power is being produced at one or two orders of magnitude below the cost of carbon, carbon will become only a niche technology.


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