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Solar evidence points to human causes of climate change
Posted on Tuesday, February 19, 2008 @ 23:08:04 UTC by vlad

General It’s getting harder and harder to blame the sun for causing the gradual increase in global temperatures that are now being seen in the climate record, scientists said today.

In a symposium on the potential role of solar variability — increases in heat coming from the sun — held in Boston at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, experts in solar science, climate modeling, and atmospheric science explored the issues surrounding who or what is to blame for the rapid rate of change.



There are several possibilities, but the most likely answer is that human industry — that is, heating, cooling, automobile exhaust, manufacturing, and power-generation — is the fundamental culprit. Such activities rely heavily on burning gas, oil, and coal on a massive scale, and the end result includes carbon dioxide, a so-called greenhouse gas that traps the heat radiating from the ground, keeping it from escaping back into space.

"I’m looking for the millennial scale of solar variability,” said astronomer Sallie Baliunas, a researcher at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge. She added that “the records do show variability,” such as changes in radioactive carbon-14 abundance and a beryllium isotope in sediment that suggest changes in solar output. “Did the sun cause what we see on the ground?” she asked. “It doesn’t seem so. But there is some fuzziness in the data, which suggests it could go either way. The answer isn’t known at this time.”

What is becoming known, especially from computer models of global climate, is quite gloomy. Warming that was first noticed in the 1960s has increased steadily, and is probably directly linked to human activities.

Scientists suspect the changes in the amount of beryllium-10 and carbon-14 found in various layers of sediment reflect solar activity, because the magnetic disturbances associated with sunspots tend to block the normal flow of cosmic rays reaching the Earth from space. The cosmic rays collide with atoms in the Earth’s atmosphere, creating the unusual isotopes; beryllium and carbon thus serve as a “signature” for cosmic-ray and solar activity.

“Our star, the sun, is a variable star,” said David H. Hathaway, a sunspot specialist from NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Hunstville, Alabama. “It varies by about one-tenth of one percent” in energy output. But “there are suggestions the sun" varies "more than that, because we see it has gone through some periods, such as the Maunder minimum.” During the Maunder minimum, which lasted from 1645 to 1715 and is also known as the Little Ice Age, there was an absence or near-absence of sunpots and northern Europe experienced especially cold winters.

Baliunas has also based her research on studying surface activity that is detectable on distant stars that are reminiscent of the sun. There is considerable variability in the 60 sunlike stars she has examined, she said, depending on how fast each rotates and other factors.Unfortunately, she added, “there is no model to explain [solar surface activity] on the century-to-millennium time scale,” and long-term changes in solar output need further study.

According to Casper M. Ammann, a climate modeler at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, in the years since 1950, “there is no observed trend” in solar radiation. The 11-year sunspot cycle has not been significantly abnormal. This is just part of the reason for the difficulty of determining the sun’s influence on Earth’s climate. Ammann explained that “for the past 150 years people have tried to see whether the monsoons are linked to the 11-years solar cycle,” but without success.

In essence, he added, it’s now very clear that the atmospheric changes being seen now — global warming — “have nothing to do with changes in solar activity. It’s greenhouse gases. It’s not the sun that is causing this [climate] trend.”
The Earth’s atmosphere — and its relationship to the sun’s energy output — is so complex that even as warming began, “up until 1960 we couldn’t see it.” But now, he said, since warming has been confirmed, the world’s climate scientists “are probably not overestimating the problem. It’s probably worse than the estimates.”

In fact, he said, global warming is occurring at an incredibly rapid rate, faster than any previous episodes of climate change known from the paleo-climate data.
Ammann did add, however, that there is reason to hope that the most dire consequences can be avoided. Although it’s clearly too late to avoid the heating of the earth’s atmosphere, “we can substantially cut [it]” by severely reducing the amounts of carbon dioxide going into the air. “It is absolutely achievable,” he said — if by mid-century societies can generate enough will to make the necessary changes.

Source: Harvard University
Via: http://www.physorg.com/news122655339.html

 
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"Solar evidence points to human causes of climate change" | Login/Create an Account | 12 comments | Search Discussion
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Re: Solar evidence points to human causes of climate change (Score: 1)
by malc on Wednesday, February 20, 2008 @ 00:19:18 UTC
(User Info | Send a Message) http://web.ukonline.co.uk/mripley
Comments please by those who state that GW is due to the sun and not CO2.



COSMIC RAYS AND EARTH’S CLIMATE (Score: 1)
by vlad on Thursday, February 21, 2008 @ 20:49:29 UTC
(User Info | Send a Message) http://www.zpenergy.com
Submitted by Anon: Abstract. During the last solar cycle Earth’s cloud cover underwent a modulation in phase with the cosmic ray flux. Assuming that there is a causal relationship between the two, it is expected and found that Earth’s temperature follows more closely decade variations in cosmic ray flux than other
solar activity parameters. If the relationship is real the state of the Heliosphere affects Earth’s climate.

Link: http://www.dsri.dk/~hsv/new_sven0606.pdf [www.dsri.dk]


]


Re: Solar evidence points to human causes of climate change (Score: 1)
by Technophile on Wednesday, February 20, 2008 @ 07:18:37 UTC
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Look, anyone can get up and say a bunch of stuff like the above article. Generalities, opinions, suppositions, "models" that assume their supposed conclusions, etc. But look at the actual data, and you see clear correlation with the sun and climate.

Look at the difference between the following article, and the one above. The one above is all opinion with no substance. We are supposed to believe these people because they say have degrees or something. But this article presents the facts. Look honestly. Try to see past your biases. Real science is falsifiable. It is based upon facts. AGW is religion, not science. http://www.warwickhughes.com/agri/Solar_Arch_NY_Mar2_08.pdf



Re: Solar evidence points to human causes of climate change (Score: 1)
by ElectroDynaCat on Wednesday, February 20, 2008 @ 11:14:52 UTC
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Up until the Earths' surface temperature approaches that of Venus, the fossil fueled SpinMeisters will continue to spew denial.

It all depends on how long one plans to live, and how close to the coastline. If you are in your twentys and plan to live on a Pacific atoll for the rest of your life, reconsider your decision.

I'm an old fart, and I live above 5000 ft MSL. If climate change is real, there's very little that can be done to rectify it to avoid problems.




Re: Solar evidence points to human causes of climate change (Score: 1)
by plastronneke on Thursday, February 21, 2008 @ 00:14:04 UTC
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I don't believe that GW is caused by CO2 (I don't belive that the small amount -0.04%- of CO2 in the atmosphere can cause that much changes). But the sun, I don't know ... I think there are other possibilities: Every little bit of energy we produce -and in the end, that's a lot- eventually becomes heat. According to me, we are boiling ourselves. We use a lot of potential energy (oil, nuclear, ...) and turn it into heat. Besides that, cities trap a lot of heat.
We should take energy that would become heat by itself, i.e.
solar energy.
And we are destroying our nature, the rainforests, the oceans, etc. I think that has a major impact on the climat too.



Re: Solar evidence points to human causes of climate change (Score: 1)
by plastronneke on Thursday, February 21, 2008 @ 00:16:53 UTC
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Forgot to mention: And is the climate change such a big deal? Climate has always changed, in the times of the vikings, Greenland was used for agriculture. And there was a time in the middle ages where it was much cooler too.
But we should do something about the things I mentioned above, because eventually that will cause problems, wether it already started or not.


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Re: Solar evidence points to human causes of climate change (Score: 1)
by malc on Thursday, February 21, 2008 @ 01:07:01 UTC
(User Info | Send a Message) http://web.ukonline.co.uk/mripley
Interesting, the same old replies:
1. Denial of the conclusions by experts in the field (an insult to those experts who don't sit in armchairs labelled "I am an expert")
2. A "belief" that CO2 can't be responsible (an insult again to those working in the field as opposed to sitting in armchairs)
3. Climate has changed before so why do nothing. Well with that logic we should all cross the road in front of moving vehicles since people have been killed by moving vehicles before!!!!!!!!!!  This belief also conflicts with expert opinion about earth history but hey armchair expert opinion rules!

Number 3 is beaut and is right up there with the bible thumping : "It's God s will, we should do nothing".

Only a complete moron can sit there with all thats going on in the world and not come to the conclusion that something bad is happening and its getting worse. It's time to decide whether you sit there like Nero in Rome or get off your butt, stop bitching about the necessity of changing your lifestyle, and do something.




Re: Solar evidence points to human causes of climate change (Score: 1)
by plastronneke on Thursday, February 21, 2008 @ 03:17:19 UTC
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I think you are responding to my post ... read it carefully and see that I do think that we have a problem.
I've got one big question for you: The same people that are warning for CO2-greenhouse-effect want us to use H2-gas, which uses a lot of energy to produce, and which gives us more H2O-gas in the atmosphere. H2O is a much bigger greenhouse-gas than CO2.
I'm not an expert (but I still have some knowledge), but I do know that there is a lot of money involved with it. And note that there are a lot of experts that don't believe in the CO2-religion. Please try to look up information from the other side. There are so much things that just don't fit. I can give you a lot of reasons, I'm making an email a.t.m. for our local politicians. If you want, I can give you some details, but this is not the place to discuss, maybe you can open a thread on the forum?
I've read both sides, and made my own conclusions.


]


What a load of bull. (Score: 1)
by Kadamose on Thursday, February 21, 2008 @ 08:40:41 UTC
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I hate to break it to you believers of manmade global warming, but the so-called 'scientific community', at least the mainstream one, is corrupted and has been for a very long time. The current scientific community serves the interests of the corporations, and have always doctored so-called 'facts' so that they bring in profits for the ones they serve. Pharmaceutical companies have been doing this for decades, by releasing a drug to the public, proclaiming it safe, making a massive amount of profit, and then years later, seeing the true side effects of those drugs with massive lawsuits. The manmade global warming religion is no different - the people in power plan to sell this scam to the world for the very same reason pharmaceutical companies release unknown chemical compounds to the public - to make profit cheaply and with little effort. If this madness does not stop, we will see a carbon tax in the near future, where anything that BREATHES will be taxed - because every living creature on this planet emits CO2 in one form or another, and that's the whole point...

The Electrical Universe theory, by the way, completely annihilates this whole global warming issue. I suggest that the global warming believers look into this because it will change your mind very quickly on what is truly happening to this world, as well as the other planets within our solar system.

Stop believing the so-called experts and being force-fed on what they have to say - because these are the same people who say that eating eggs is good for you one day, and bad for you a week later. They are always changing their story - and this is not good science.

The anode of our solar system, the sun, is currently undergoing ELECTRICAL fluxuations, due to the sun's current position in the galaxy, which just so happens to be highly charged with PLASMA. These fluxuations are nothing new, and happened exactly 26,000 years ago when the Sun was in the same position it is now. This climate change we are all experiencing is a natural phenoma that occurs every 13,000 years. With that said, even if a carbon tax were ratified and implemented, and even if we got rid of all of our polluting technologies, it would not do anything in regard to the climate change issue.

It is time for you manmade global warming believers to wake up and smell the bullshit. You've been had - BIG TIME.






Re: Solar evidence points to human causes of climate change (Score: 1)
by ElectroDynaCat on Friday, February 22, 2008 @ 11:11:02 UTC
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What no one seems to have linked together is that sunspots are connected to increased  output of the Sun. During the past 10 years, the global temperature has set records, during a time when insolation has been at a minimum.

What will this mean if the sunspot cycle cranks up again and solar output increases? If the Earth is heating up during a period of reduced solar output, whats going to happen when that output increases?

The 11 year cycle is expected to start again soon, we'd better be hoping that the Maunder Minimum shows up instead. 



Re: Solar evidence points to human causes of climate change (Score: 1)
by nanotech on Friday, February 22, 2008 @ 15:16:30 UTC
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Not to change the topic but this reminds me of an interesting idea I have heard: The idea that the 'sunspots' are actually living things. Now is that possible or nonsense? What do you think?

Also, if we build solar or ZPE powered nano machines and send them into the atmosphere, and extract all the excess carbon dioxide (break it into C and O, use the c to build diamondoid structure, and release the o), could this help the global warming problem and reverse it, or not?

Some nano theorists have speculated that doing this may DEPLETE the atmosphere of needed CO2..which plants need to survive! Imagine that? Too LITTLE Co2?




]


Re: Solar evidence points to human causes of climate change (Score: 1)
by Technophile on Monday, February 25, 2008 @ 10:16:49 UTC
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This is a step in the right direction, that you are noticing that the variation in the Sun is driving temperature.

The next step is to realize that there are lags in temperature from the solar input. Just as the annual solar day peaks in late June, yet July and August tend to be the hottest months, in the larger solar cycles there are similar lags. The larger solar cycle topped in '90-'91, and temperature topped right on schedule with its 8 year lag in '98. The next, lesser, sunspot cycle topped in 2002 and the lower temperature peak topped in '04-'05. Now temperature is falling off rapidly as we hit "September" in the larger cycle.

http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/02/04/rss-satellite-data-for-jan08-2nd-coldest-january-for-the-planet-in-15-years/


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