New energy tied to new cooperation
Date: Sunday, September 24, 2006 @ 15:34:25 UTC
Topic: General


Scott Simpson, Vancouver Sun/ Published: Saturday, September 23, 2006

Humanity's darkest hour may be just decades away, touched off by a desperate and increasingly violent struggle for energy resources.

Futurist scenarios examined by the International Energy Agency, Shell Oil, a Stockholm-based think-tank, and others see "grim" prospects for civilization if nations fail to manage a smooth transition to new energy systems as conventional fossil fuel supplies dwindle.



An energy demand study prepared by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development sees the period between 2010 and 2020 as pivotal to efforts to successfully adapt to new systems that lessen the world's dependence on oil and reduce the impact that fossil fuel combustion has on the climate.

It is expected that without action to curb greenhouse gas emissions, fossil fuel combustion will increase concentrations of carbon dioxide and other gases in the Earth's atmosphere, diminishing food production from both agriculture and fisheries as well as reducing the availability of fresh water.

Optimistic scenarios assume an easy transition to other sources of energy -- including the gasification of coal and its widespread adoption as a replacement for gasoline.

But those scenarios also rely on an unprecedented new era of cooperation among already developed nations, ambitious developing nations, and oil-rich nations that, to date, have put national interests ahead of those of their trading partners.

More gloomy scenarios anticipate heightened conflict as developed nations attempt to lock down supplies of energy on behalf of their own constituents.

Meanwhile, countries with fewer financial resources face revolution and collapse as climate change hampers their ability to produce food.

The Stockholm Environment Institute, whose forecasts have often been cited by the International Energy Agency, anticipates social, environmental, economic, institutional and resource "stress" -- and "dangers" -- without a transformation to more sustainable energy systems.

Tensions will rise between have and have-not populations inside and outside existing national borders, leading to "generalized societal disorder, loss of governance and regional fragmentation."

Privileged "actors" including regions, countries and multinational corporations would be moved to protect their own interests by "entrenching themselves in bubbles of wealth" that exclude the majority of the world's population from access to strategic resources.

Alternatively, the powerful elite will find themselves unable to contain "the tide of violence" arising from extreme inequity in energy supply -- or competition from rival groups.

Multiple stresses including pollution, climate change and ecosystem degradation will amplify the opportunity for conflict.

Some scenarios envision increasingly violent waves of global terrorism -- with large and motivated groups of militants using biological and nuclear weapons with catastrophic effects against their supposed oppressors.

The crisis "spins out of control," a "planetary emergency" is declared, and authoritarian regimes crack the whip in even the most privileged enclaves.

In the worst case, the world suffers a generalized breakdown of civilization including "general disintegration of social, cultural and political institutions, de-industrialization and technological regression."

"Breakdown could persist for decades before social evolution to higher levels of civilization again becomes possible," says a paper written by Stockholm Environment Institute program director Gilberto Gallopin.

ssimpson@png.canwest.com

Source: http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/story.html?id=d43f441b-3a05-4158-b66b-9a723f4a069a







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